[SMM Daily Coke & Coal Brief Review] 20250512

[SMM Daily Commentary on Coking Coal]

Coking Coal Market:

In Linfen, the quoted price for low-sulphur coking coal is 1,270 yuan/mt. In Tangshan, the quoted price for low-sulphur coking coal is 1,370 yuan/mt.

In terms of fundamentals, coal mines are maintaining normal production, but sales are weak, leading to inventory accumulation. However, the outcome of the Sino-US tariff negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for commodity prices. Therefore, it is expected that coking coal prices will remain in the doldrums this week.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,680 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,540 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,340 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,250 yuan/mt.

In terms of supply, most enterprises are maintaining profits or operating at the break-even point, and their coke inventories remain low. Therefore, there is relatively small willingness to voluntarily cut production, and coke supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. In terms of demand, the outcome of the Sino-US tariff negotiations exceeded market expectations, stimulating downstream end-use demand. Additionally, steel mills' profitability is moderate, and blast furnace pig iron production is at a high level, creating a rigid demand for coke. As a result, steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm has increased. In summary, the imbalance in coke fundamentals is relatively small, and market confidence is high. This week, the coke market may remain stable, with expectations of price reductions dissipating. [SMM Steel]